A couple of quick notes on the Vermont election:
1) Whence the GOP?
Phil Scott and Tom Salmon are the GOP standard-bearers, as holders of statewide office.
But it's going to be quite a shift, after having the governor's podium to put out the message during the Douglas years. The party is going to have to work a lot harder at getting its positions top of people's minds.
The week Douglas announced he was stepping down, some fairly senior Rutland County Republicans were overheard discussing their urgent need for a candidate, as they didn't think Brian Dubie was electable. That turned out to be -- barely -- true. Now it's unclear whether Dubie has the desire to stay on in some high-profile role. Given that he was almost invisible as lt. governor before he decided to run for governor, it seems more likely that he'll go back to a low-key political profile.
Phil Scott might turn the No. 2 spot into a mandate to speak for the GOP, but it's a big step down from the visibility Douglas enjoyed. Salmon isn't shy about introducing himself into debates, but he's a bit mercurial to be a policy spokesman. Plus, unlike lt. gov., the auditor has year-round duties, and Salmon also let slip that he would like to challenge Bernie Sanders for U.S. Senate, so he might be a little busy to also serve as the foil for the Senate, the House and the administration. Jason Gibbs would have been a natural in that role, except voters sent him back to get a bit more experience.
That opens the way for senior GOP House and Senate members to emerge as opposition leaders, or for "business" groups to push the conservative agenda. But the GOP enters a bit of a leadership void in the state with Dubie's loss.
2) What will Peter Shumlin's approach to the budget be?
Regardless which candidate came out on top, there's a looming fiscal nightmare. The governor-elect has ambitious plans for, among other things, health care. But first, he has to fix a huge budget hole. Will he be able to get short-term concessions from state workers that were unavailable to a Republican viewed as anti-labor? When Shumlin was the de facto legislative leader, he always had a plan to find a few million here, a federal bail-out there, to balance the state's budget. How he approaches the fiscal issues for 2011 will set the tone early for his tenure.