I sat down with Professor John Van Hoesen of Green Mountain college to ask him to explain the link between global warming and "extreme" weather (i.e. more and bigger hurricanes, extended and more severe droughts, etc).
I was intrigued by the connection between global warming and "extreme weather," because I spent some time in the south after Hurricane Katrina and have witnessed the havok it has caused to the land, economy and people. There has been significant studies and scientific proof linking the recent changes in global climate leading to more extreme weather. For a local example, take a look at my earlier blog on Global warming and fading foliage ...
Professor John Van Hoesen is an expert in geology ... but he knows a lot about climatology as well. In fact he taught a course here at Green Mountain College called "The Global Warming Debate," which I was lucky enough to take. The "debate" was not over whether global warming is happening or not ... it's obvious that it is. Rather the "debate" was understanding the two extremes of "experts" in the field: those who are considered "doomsdayers" (who say that humans have wreked so much havok that it's too late to change anything now) and those who say that global warming is just another natural cycle, and that humans have nothing to do with it. Finding the middle ground is hard.
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Q: Do you believe that the recent “extreme” weather, such as Hurricane Katrina in southern U.S. and also increased droughts is a manifestation of Global Warming/climate change?
A: First off, “extreme” relative to what timescale? My lifespan, our grandparents, or the human race? We don’t have an incredibly rich scientific record with respect to how many events and with what intensity (at most 100 years of good reliable data). We don’t have enough perspective...I’m not trying to straddle the fence, I do believe weather patterns have changed, that we have seen an increase in hurricanes, tornadoes, landslides, etc. But whether these are “extreme” or not is difficult to assess. However, what requires attention is whether the events are becoming more “extreme” or whether humans have egotistically placed themselves in harm's way expecting to engineer their way out of a disaster. New Orleans knew that eventually something like this would happen. Global Warming or not they are below sea level and protected by levees! So is it G.W. (global warming) or is it human error? I suppose it’s all how you define extreme, but I don’t think we’re seeing anything we haven’t seen in the past, this one just got our attention because it made landfall in one of the worst possible locations.
Q: What do you have to say about the following quote, taken from an article on Hurricane Katrina: “Katrina is not just bad luck, nature’s occasional surprise thrust on an unsuspecting humanity. Make no mistake about it. We created this monster storm” (Global Warming Hits New Orleans: The Controversy After the Storm, by Jeremy Rifkin).
A: I agree with the statement that we “created” this storm, however not as Rifkin implies because of global warming, but rather because we built and sustained a city below sea level. Because we relied on technology to create a bastion that was more psychological than a reality, and because we didn’t learn from previous experiences that we weren’t prepared. Remember Hurricane Charley from last year? Thought to be a direct hit on New Orleans, and then it missed the city...Charley was the warning, Katrina just happened to land where it would do damage.
Q-What, besides global warming could be causing the recent weather patterns? (i.e. hurricanes)
A: One of the most damaging processes that occur during a hurricane is storm surge. Waves keep building upon one another and eventually strike land, creating massive flooding and considerable waves. The Gulf is a generally shallowly dipping coastline, which means storm surges have the perfect environment to develop and become extremely large (some as big as 25 feet during Katrina). So geography/geology plays a huge role, as does the positioning of a burgeoning human population. There’s a reason why the economic impact of hurricanes has steadily risen over the last 50-ish years: we continue to expand out into areas that are known zones of tornado development, volcanic activity, earthquakes and of course hurricanes.
Other factors that are important are wind shear in the atmosphere (you can’t have a hurricane without shear) and wind shear can be affected by fluctuating El Nino events. It has been argued that El Nino is more prevalent now because of Global Warming, but since we only “discovered” El Nino type patterns in 1923 the debate isn’t over regarding the link between the two. Warming waters should result in intense hurricanes, but not necessarily more devastating ones if the wind shear isn’t present, and the results might not be as damaging depending on where it makes landfall.
Q: Do you feel that global warming is happening more from natural reasons or more from human impact?
A: We are seeing an unprecedented rapidity of climate change along with an enormous output of greenhouse gases and aerosols in addition to the destruction of carbon sinks. Humans are extremely productive and are making significant changes in Earth’s atmospheric composition. However, to make the case that we have more control than natural forces (e.g., albedo, ocean currents, orbital cycles, incoming radiation, etc.) is another example of our arrogance as humans. Although we are making changes, those changes affect US and given time the “natural” background processes would correct any perturbations we’ve introduced. Can we influence them and drive climate change? Yes. Are we more dominant than these forces, in the long run I would answer a resounding NO.
Q: How does global warming relate to other environmental issues?
A: It’s so intertwined with other environmental issues that we could use it as an umbrella to define almost all environmental issues at hand. However, I think many environmentalists have hurt the movement by making causal relationships (e.g., insisting that a single hurricane can be attributed to G.W.). I feel like we spend an enormous amount of energy trying to convince people that G.W. exists, rather than accepting the fact that there will be a debate for considerable time to come, and focus energy and resources at ameliorating and reducing our impact (e.g., lower emissions, more efficient cars, appliances, better transportation networks, alternative fuels, etc). We will reach the same goal without having to convince anyone of G.W.
Q: What should we be doing differently, both on a grand scale and in our own personal lives to help stop global warming?
A: This is one of the fallacies that I think exist about G.W. ... that we can “stop” it. If there is a natural component to the change (which there may very well be) we could stop all greenhouse gas emission and still experience warming. Additionally, the atmosphere isn’t going to respond overnight to our changes. We need to cut our emission by 70 percent now to achieve the goals of the Kyoto Protocol... probably not realistic. Does that mean we keep running the “business” as usual? Of course not. But the mis-perception that our day-to-day decisions will stop G.W. is a bit far-fetched. We might not see the fruits of our energy conservation and reduction emissions in our lifetime; if we have perturbed the climate as significantly as many think, it will take more than a 100 years to rectify 150 years of abuse. We need to act for the future, but not necessarily for our own personal future. I think recognizing that this isn’t going to be a quick fix and that we have to remain vigilant is important. So it does matter if we take three unnecessary trips to Rutland, or if we walk to the Brown Bag instead of driving, or if we carpool even though it might be inconvenient sometimes, or that we don’t waste as much food as we do in the dining hall, that we don’t drive SUV’s, that we don’t spend eight hours a day in a motorboat just to drive fast, etc., etc., etc.; the list could go on. We need to accept that although our parents, grandparents, and great grandparents yelled at us for not cleaning our rooms, this generation and future generations will be responsible for cleaning up after them.
