If you're looking for a presidential race prediction, go read Nate Silver.
As for Governor, I don't get the impression that Shumlin has significantly angered very many of the people who voted him in two years ago. Ditto Phil Scott. Does anybody expect one of our Congressional incumbents to lose?
Given that it's a presidential year, I would wager Shumlin's and Obama's coat-tails will carry the Democratic candidates in the other statewide races that nobody but political junkies really pay attention to.
Now, to the local races. Remember folks, these are gambler's picks, not endorsements:
Doug Gage vs. Sherri Durgin-Campbell
Doug Gage by a nose. Outgoing Representative Gale Courcelle's victory margins got slimmer year by year, to where Gage only missed unseating her by two votes last year. Given that Gage has some name recognition from his previous run, the biggest factor I would see in Durgin-Campbell's favor is the hope of Obama's coat-tails reaching all the way down to the City House districts, which I'm not betting on.
Peg Andrews vs. Larry Cupoli
Driving around, I've seen a couple of Larry Cupoli's signs sharing lawnspace with Shumlin signs. Not the biggest sample, I know, but it makes me suspect any Democratic groundswell from the presidential election won't have much impact on the local one. It also makes me wonder if we'll instead have a Republican groundswell in the city, perhaps spurred on by all those Vermonters First mailings.
That said, I can't say I've heard that anyone is upset with Andrews about her performance in Monptelier, so my prediction is Andrews by a nose.
Herb Russell vs John Mattison
Rep. Herb Russell has been the most active of the city's delegation in terms of publicizing what he's getting done in the State House, the copper thefts bill being a prime example. Like with Andrews, I can't say I've heard any discontent regarding him. Mattison has already fallen short of claiming a vacancy on the Board of Aldermen, so I can't say I like his chances against an incumbent Legislator. Like with the above race, though, I wouldn't rule out a local Republican groundswell producing an upset.
Hedging aside, I'll put down a fiver on Russell.
The Water Bond
Based on my highly unscientific survey of two people coming out of the Godnick Center, I'd call this one too close to call. It's a dead heat.
I'm chickening out on this one. No bet.