I'll admit up-front, my track record at predicting elections is abysmal. I didn't do too bad tonight.
I'm going to claim a 50-50 success rate with the city House races, but only for the moment. As we go to press, all three races in the city appear headed for recounts.
Speaking strictly as a gambler, I would have bet on Doug Gage to oust Gale Courcelle. Courcelle's last two elections were close enough to justify recounts and Gage seemed like a more aggressive campaigner. If the initial results hold, Courcelle made it by one vote. We'll see if the scales tip, but right now I missed that one.
I guessed Peg Andrews would probably be re-elected. Incumbents are usually safe bets if they haven't done anything specific to rile their constituents, and I haven't heard any complaints about her. That theory looks like it held up, but, again, we'll have to wait and see what the final numbers say.
I didn't have a prediction for Carl Haas and Herb Font-Russell. It's tempting to claim that as a success since it was so close, but I'm leaving it off the scoresheet.
The city ballot items went how I figured they would.
City voters seem to be pretty supportive of infrastructure projects, so I had no doubt the bond would pass. My gut told me the non-binding city manager article would fail. Vermonters generally prefer voting for more of their officials rather than fewer of them, and I never heard much of an argument that the problems with this city had anything to do with us having a mayor.